You know you can play, but you lose?

Analysis of over 2,500 all-in hands on ACR. My statistics and questions about RNG

Hi everyone,

I would like to share some statistics I gathered from my hand history database on ACR Poker. Since modern tools and Python make it possible to thoroughly search through logs, I wrote a custom script to analyze all my all-in showdown confrontations.

The results from such a large sample size raised serious concerns for me, and I would like to hear your opinions or experiences.

Report Summary:

Total number of all-in showdown hands: 2,541

Number of won confrontations: 337

Number of lost confrontations: 2,204

Actual win rate: 13.26%

For a sample size exceeding 2,500 hands, this win rate drastically deviates from probability theory and standard hand equity in No-Limit Hold'em. In practice, this points to a massive, non-linear discrepancy during crucial turn and river moments.

I have already sent an official inquiry containing this report to ACR support, asking for an explanation of how their system accounts for such severe statistical anomalies.

Has anyone else tracked similar statistics from their databases on ACR and noticed such a drastic gap between theory and actual rivers? Let me know in the comments.

now GGpoker :

The analysis focuses exclusively on all-in showdown confrontations, filtering out automated lottery formats (such as Flipouts). The results from a substantial sample size of 1,846 all-in showdown hands reveal a severe mathematical discrepancy:

Total All-In Showdowns: 1,846

Won Confrontations: 268

Lost Confrontations: 1,578

Actual Win Rate: 14.52%

The first thing I’d check is how the hands were selected. A 13 to 15% showdown win rate by itself doesn’t tell you much about RNG unless you also track your equity when the money went in. If most of these were hands where you were behind, losing 85% of them isn’t surprising. Comparing all-in equity versus actual results, split by starting equity ranges, would make the analysis much more meaningful.