seems to me from my player days, flushes are a lot more common than straights and easier to get. What are the exact percentages on how hard it is to be a straight vs a flush?
Why is a flush worth more than a straight?
4 replies
A flush is worth more than a straight mainly because it is statistically less likely to occur in most forms of poker. While both hands are strong, the probability of being dealt a flush is lower than that of getting a straight, which is why poker hand rankings place the flush above the straight. Understanding these probability differences is one of the most interesting aspects of poker strategy, much like how discussions around Janitor AI (https://janitoraifree.com/) often explore the mechanics and logic behind complex systems.
by etogUsu m (https://www.twoplustwo.com/post?postId=59383314#post59383314)
What game and number of cards are you talking about? In a 5-card hand, a straight is about 0.392% and a flush about 0.197% (excluding straight flushes), so the flush is roughly half as likely. In 7-card poker the gap is smaller, but the flush still isn’t more common.
People who think a straight is harder to hit than a flush are assumting the higher odds post flop of hitting an OESD than a flush draw means a straight is harder to make. Lesson: Don't tap the glass. 😉
For two cards, there are 13 possible connected ranks AK, KQ … 2A, with 12 unsuited combos of each. This makes 13x12=156 “straight” combos. There are 13x12/2=78 possible nonpaired hands by rank only without regard to suits, but 13 of them are connected. For each there are 4 combos that are suited. This makes 65x4=260 flush combos. For three cards, there are 12 possible straights with 64 possible suit combos, but we exclude 4 since those would be straight flushes. Therefore there are 60x12=720 straight combos. There are 13x12x11/6 = 286 unpaired ranks. We exclude the 12 that make straights, leaving 274, with 4 combos of each making flushes, giving 4x274=1,096 flush combos. The flush to straight ratio is 260/156=1.667 for 2 cards, and 1096/720=1.522 for three cards. In general this ratio keeps declining as we add cards. It is easier to make a flush with fewer cards, but it becomes relatively easier to make straights as the cards increase, and the ratio is <1 for five cards; ie. it’s easier to make a straight with 5 than a flush.
Here are the honest facts: Flushes are twice as rare BUT twice as memorable, How many times have yo driven home replaying in your head the gutshot you folded?