Reckless river bluff 200 bb deep - stupid or reasonable?

6 replies

bricciusNewbie4 posts
Posted May 10, 2026, 10:00 AM#1

GG Poker - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 (http://www.pokertracker.com/)

BTN: 93.96 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)

SB: 250.64 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)

Hero (BB): 284.24 BB

UTG: 328.84 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)

MP: 218.2 BB

CO: 69.08 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has A♥ K♦

fold, MP raises to 2.52 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 7.96 BB, MP calls 5.44 BB

Flop: (16.32 BB, 2 players) 3♥ 5♥ T♦

Hero bets 5.4 BB, MP calls 5.4 BB

Turn: (27.12 BB, 2 players) T♣

Hero checks, MP checks

River: (27.12 BB, 2 players) T♠

Spoiler Hero checks, MP bets 13.56 BB, Hero raises to 270.88 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 49.6 BB

Please roast me

I feel I can fold out many pairs that bet for value like 66-99 and he can really only call me with a T, some (most?) of which he should be betting on the turn? If I bluff, do I need to shove to maximise FE when he has 66-99 or should some other size suffice to achieve my objective while risking less in case he has a T? If I decide not to bluff this river do I check-fold or is it reasonable to check-call sometimes, as he can have some missed draws? If I do decide to bluff, does the check-raise bluff make more sense than just betting the river? I feel in the latter case I never make any worse hand fold unless I overbet massively.

taavi1337Shark206 posts
Posted May 10, 2026, 12:33 PM#2

Yes the only problem i think is that, you dont have much Tx in your BB vs MP preflop 3betting range. He might notice that.

bricciusNewbie4 posts
Posted May 10, 2026, 1:34 PM#3

That is a fair point. Still, even if he notices it, will he be able to hero-call with 99 or similar often enough for me not to attempt this sort of play? If I am in his shoes, I probably think "he has few Tx in his range, but this is probably one of those times, and if not is it really worth finding out blablabla" until I time out. I understand people do not like to fold boats, but it's quite a bit of pressure. If he starts finding the call here, then I can make a note and can start playing like this with AA/KK/QQ in this spot? I just feel it's probably a good play exploitatively. Given how deep we are, he might actually have KK-JJ in his range as well.

taavi1337Shark206 posts
Posted May 10, 2026, 4:14 PM#4

He might also have worse hands than AK in his range quite often, this is why I dont like the bluff as you risk ~190? to win 40, so it has to work very often, maybe just call with AK on the river as he can have bluffs? (and he only bet 1/2 pot). i think very interesting hand!

VorpalF2FShark408 posts
Posted May 10, 2026, 4:47 PM#5

The fact that you label this "reckless" says a lot.

I think you played that river very well. To lead would fail, but check-raising did the trick.

Nice hand

SDK1987Regular95 posts
Posted May 10, 2026, 8:57 PM#6

Also you're own thoughs could helps what you was thinking during the hand, but in general this seems not a great spot to bluff at on a dry board.

Cheers,

SDK1987

adragonroMicro-Stakes Grinder9 posts
Posted Jun 4, 2026, 9:11 AM#7

I would raus bigger preflop since u are OOP and deep. Like 3,5-4,5x.

I think he is hitting this Flop better.

OTT ich would c/c this hand and bluff worse.

Also I guess you Just can find out which size is best by try and Error. 4x pot is quite big. 2x pot=140bb should also so the trick.

How much would u bet with a Ten or KK?

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