Overfolding against nit aggression

Hi guys, itaba posted this hand in Advanced Hand Discussions and I think it deserves a more detailed analysis since it's a common spot, when we have a very strong hand and face agression from a very tight player. Thanks to itaba for posting and thank you all for reading and participating. You can check out the original post here (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?postid=2014514#post2014514).

Originally posted by itaba

Villain seems like a normal NL50 reg 18/16, low WWSF and low W$SD but small sample 280 hands only, i know im always below at river, i know always a fold at river he have all the big sets. . but what if i instead had TT, or JJ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com (http://flopturnriver.com/)

Hero (MP) ($51.56)

CO ($88.07)

Button ($51.71)

SB ($41.72)

BB ($57.19)

UTG ($52.75)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6, 6

1 fold, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, Button calls $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $0.75

Flop: ($4) 6, Q, 10 (3 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $2, Button raises to $7, 1 fold, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($18) J (2 players)

Hero checks, Button bets $11.45, Hero calls $11.45

River: ($40.90) 2 (2 players)

Hero checks, Button bets $32.01 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $40.90 | Rake: $1.84

Results below:

Spoiler

Button didn't show

My opinion: easy fold turn

So, we have very valuable information on villain. 200 hands is more that enough to say that he is extremely tight pre flop and not agressive post flop. And this makes a world of difference in this hand. We even have a "bonus" factor which is being in a multi way pot. Our opponent is already prone to only be agressive with nut hands, but in a multi-way pot that is even more true.

So, we could make that argument that he also plays like this flop with QTs. That could be true, although I would not take for granted that he calls QTs pre flop BU vs MP's range, that's generally too loose and the close gap between PFR and VPIP shows that villain is not flat-happy pre flop. Also, I do believe that this guy mostly calls with QQ pre flop against MP range, they tend to do that a lot. I also think it's very unlikely for villain to slowplay pre flop AA and then raise flop in a mwp. We don't need equilab to see that if villain only raises QQ/TT on the flop we should be folding right on the flop. But we are not THAT sure that villain does not have QTs in his range, that he never plays KK+ like this and that he never ever plays a hand like KJ like this. So the call on the flop doesn't look terrible to me.

Now, the turn we do really only have a bluffcatcher, villain is not value betting QTs anymore (even if it is in his range flop) and the "miracle" bluff that he makes on the flop now has a pair or a straight a lot of the time, so that doesn't help us either. So if we have a bluffcatcher and villain is not bluffing we have a very easy decision, even with a hand as nutty as a set.

itaba also asks what should we do if we have JJ or TT. Well, JJ should not be in out bet/call range on the flop. We should probably check the flop and if we bet we should fold to the raise. TT is actually a lot stronger than 66, because now we win against 66, which villain absolutely plays like this. In worst case scenario ff villain has all QQ and none of QTs we are in a 50/50 situation which is not terrible, so anything else is a bonus. I would exploitatively play aggressively with TT on the flop, villain is simply not bluffing or thin value betting so no point in slowplaying our hand.

So, what can we learn from this hand:

[*] Even with a small sample of 200 hands, we can make huge adjustments in our game to increase our winrate, if you have the stats you should use them wisely.

[*] Nits don't like bluffing and they don't like thin value betting or raising, so this means that in a lot of spots, facing agression from a nit, you'll find yourself realizing that you have a bluffcatcher, even with a hand as strong as a set. So act as you have a bluffcatcher, and forget the absolute strength of your hand.

Question for you guys, what's the best way to play KJ here?

In a MW pot, our FE decreases a lot, so I don't know if cbetting KJ is a good idea. Mybe playing it passively to try to keep both players on the hand could be an idea.

If we we cbet the turn, and get raisesd like this hand, and assuming the villians's range of 66,TT,QQ, QTs, it could be a b/c. On the turn, that J is bad for our KJ, it decreases a lot our draw strrength and also our possible straight strength. If the river is an A or a 9, we probably will not get more value from the villian's hand, so on the turn I woul fold KJ.

Doesn't need much looking at, fold flop most times, villain not doing that with AQ. I would bet bigger on flop MW and nitfold to the raise. And turn is easy fold, just so crushed. If I held TT or JJ as the question stands I would play TT the same - that flop raise is death - and not cbet JJ at all. Rightly or wrongly, I can actually nit it up sometimes.

How to play KJ? Fold preflop; told you I was a nit.

Check-folding flop is better.

good analyses.

I would call flop KJ and fold turn because of bad implieds (if we hit straight, it is 4 card straight). If blank would come on turn it would be more a call because of implieds, but it should be very marginal +EV call.

Question: A nit shouldn’t be able to beat skilled opponents. Mathematically, bluffing (among other tactics) is required to win this game. How far up can you encounter nits? NL100? Even higher?

My assumption is that nits located farther up the ladder actually do bluff — and they bluff more often than a typical player can successfully do after committing to a pot.

Originally posted by YohanN7

Question: It should be impossible for a nit to win against good players. It is a mathematical fact that you must bluff (among other things) in this game to be a winner. How high up can you find nits? NL100? Higher?

I can only assume that nits to be found higher up actually do bluff - and more than a normal player can get away with once they have entered a pot.

I think that if you see a nit higher than NL25, he is probably a "fish reg", and since you have fish on all limits, there are also nits everywhere.

Originally posted by GingerKid

Originally posted by YohanN7

Question: It should be impossible for a nit to win against good players. It is a mathematical fact that you must bluff (among other things) in this game to be a winner. How high up can you find nits? NL100? Higher?

I can only assume that nits to be found higher up actually do bluff - and more than a normal player can get away with once they have entered a pot.

I think that if you see a nit higher than NL25, he is probably a "fish reg", and since you have fish on all limits, there are also nits everywhere.

I thought it obvious that my question was; how high up do you have winning nits, or rather, extremely tight players?

Originally posted by YohanN7

Originally posted by GingerKid

Originally posted by YohanN7

Question: It should be impossible for a nit to win against good players. It is a mathematical fact that you must bluff (among other things) in this game to be a winner. How high up can you find nits? NL100? Higher?

I can only assume that nits to be found higher up actually do bluff - and more than a normal player can get away with once they have entered a pot.

I think that if you see a nit higher than NL25, he is probably a "fish reg", and since you have fish on all limits, there are also nits everywhere.

I thought it obvious that my question was; how high up do you have winning nits, or rather, extremely tight players?

It really depends on your definition of a nit. If for you a nit is a 18/16 then nits cannot win long run in a 100nl zoom game, maybe not even 50nl.

It's a spectrum, a lot of winning regs at 100nl and even 200nl are not bluffing enough in a lot of spots, and would be tagged as "nits" by a 500nl+ winner.

Now, the turn we do really only have a bluffcatcher, villain is not value betting QTs anymore

Dont you think a lot players can there missread an absolute strength of hand, and still betting QTs, because "I have two pair"? How much average players fold there for example AQ OTT/OTF you think? thx

(I only want understand, why you think he dont betting QTs anymore)

Never folding 66 in this spot. He might be value-betting his QTs (he’s not a GTO deity but probably a very nitty player, so a bad opponent who overplays hands). Sure, maybe he never bluffs here, but VPIP and PFR alone don’t prove that. He could even be raising AA, KK, and AQ (many such nits lack awareness and raise to “protect” the pot — I see that frequently). I’d fold 66 only with enough sample to be confident he hasn’t done anything wild and that his raise frequency is actually very low, or his aggression factor is low.

Interesting question about how would we play KJ here. With no reads on villains my OR MP range include KJs only. With KdJd I would maybe (I am not sure) just check-call OTF. But with others (KhJh, KcJc. KsJs) I would bet-call since we have some extra equity thanks to BDFD. Either way on the turn we hit our pair, but actually this card is not that great at all for us + hence I think we shouldnt be thunking like "Ha! We improved!". Now we want to get into showdown cheaply, which will be hard to do. Important fact here is the turn card is of a different suite, so none of our KJs hands improved to FD. It is really questionable if we should call on the turn. I would be more happy to call a big net OTT with FD also.

Originally posted by Kony76

In a MW pot, our FE drops considerably, so I'm not sure if cbetting KJ is advisable. Maybe playing it passively to try to keep both players in the pot could work.

I don't believe our FE in a MW pot typically falls THAT far. But it certainly isn't extremely high in this specific spot. What I mean is villains will hold a lot of middle and small pocket pairs and are setmining. More often than not they won't make a set and, in those cases, they will usually fold. Villains will also call with suited hands and there are no FDs (only backdoors) available. That's why I think our FE hasn't decreased that dramatically.

Originally posted by Kony76If we cbet the turn, and get raised like in this hand, and assume the villain's range of 66,TT,QQ, QTs, it could be a b/c.

You meant the flop, right ?

Originally posted by nsavov

Check-folding flop is better.

Check-folding with 66 or KJo or KJs or KJ ?

Simple fold before the flop.

Originally posted by msp3101

Simple fold before the flop.

Spoiler

Why did the $1.25 raise? That looks tiny.

Also, what information does this raise give the villain about the hero’s holdings?

I’d place the hero on:

• AA/KK

• a small pair

• Axs

Why is no one talking about AK? Can't villain have AK also? going through hh again OH, the flop raise! That's why he doesn't have AK. Solved it myself kthanx

good topic

Difficult — he might have had 2 pair up against a larger set. I think either calling or folding is acceptable; in similar spots I’ve won when the opponent held 2 pair and also lost when they had a bigger set.

tmannie

A small raise, of course. That happens when you try to get opponents to call with hands that aren't strong.

I prefer check and fold at flop in mtt with this hand ♦

With this information, you don't have the pot odds to call even on the flop. KJ is bet-call, check-fold obviously.

I would exploitatively play aggressively with TT on the flop; the villain is almost certainly not bluffing or making thin value bets, so there's no reason to slowplay our hand.

I can't follow this. Even if he sometimes has something other than a set (optimistic assumption), he can still fold on the flop or on the turn... And we're not certain about 66. We're unsure about our 52-53%. We obviously can't fold with TT, but we also can't raise with this equity. I mean probably larger than 50%, probably smaller than 50%, and ultimately equal to 50%. Simple as, in my opinion...

I enjoy this game

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What nobody wrote about, is that Hero answered to Button's raise with call and later he checked on the turn. This line bet/call flop + check turn looks reckless!!!

If somebody raise than I need to think, even use bank time. That's a poker players job to think here.

Button is a super nit with better hands on flop than mine set of 6 -> Hero bets 2 euro, Button raises to 7 euro, Hero folds

Button is a nit but I still have better hand than he -> Hero bets 2 euro, Button raises to 7 euro, Hero raises to 20 euro with intention to call all-in

Button is a nit but I am able to fight with him on next barrel -> Hero bets 2 euro, Button raises to 7 euro, Hero calls 5 euro + Hero knows that whatever card will show up on the turn, he will bet again on the turn.

Betting 2 euro to the 4 euro pot is a weak form of invitation to next barrels. We suppose to get at least one call and we should to bet again on turn into higher pot. The problem is that pumping pot isn't our intention if we are not sure about our holdings. However, if we decide to bet 4 euro in first instance, we are putting our hands on range. Betting 100% pot multiway with obvious nit involved sounds powerful, also it's cheaper to bet 4 euro than to bet 2 euro + calling 5 euro + calling 11.45 euro.

If Button raises from our 4 euro to 14 euro than this move costs him twice and it allows us to resign in this very moment with only 5.25 euro lost total. We expect to get such a raise only if Button beat us. Instead of betting 2 euro reckless we can bet 4 euro for information. And now we know that this information is comperatively cheap as opponents can not be aware that we are gonna fold in case of further action.

AA KK or two pairs.

I say F&&& his stats and 4 bet him all in on flop

Why call the flop to fold the turn, wouldn't it be better to just fold the glop

Im one game agresiw and one tig

KJ would be almost always a check raise, since the nit is mostly set mining, and always bluffs and never really calls vs reraises and will almost always fold, unless of course he has a monster then, i wouldn't invest anymore money, calling a reraise or ship it, is certainly a bad idea vs this kind of player

if he calls then its an easy bet on the turn 3/4 then shove the river, he would probably make 1 call with AQ maybe 2 very unlikley to call a river shove, as long as he isnt pot comitted

Im jedna gra agresiw i jeden tig

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VS

I really like this post — thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you

I think post flop he is protecting something like QT QJ because he maybe expects you have AK , AA. On the turn when he maybe hits doubles and seeing that is committed to the pot keeps betting to finish all in on the river.

Good luck on the tables !

Fold

Wow, this post was showing first in queue

Great content, appreciate you posting this.

Idk, made me wonder how active this forum is XD, by your reply I guess some

Nu pricep de ce a plătit pentru turn, dar pentru acel 2 se retrage? ...a plătit crezând că va intra?