Sportsbetting.

Sportsbetting. What's your experience with it?

I have been intrigued by sports betting in the past, because it is another kind of betting which can be done with positive expectations, in theory.

The reason for this is that bookies have the incentive of creating their odds in a way that whatever the outcome will be, they will walk away with a profit. To give a good example of this, it is sometimes possible to bet on which team will win the coin toss at the start of a match, which is a 50% chance. A sportsbook may give decimal odds of perhaps 1.95 for both options, so a little less than even money. Therefore, people are expected to bet evenly on both outcomes, and the bookie will make money by not having to pay even money on an even odds bet. It is similar to how the red/black bet in roulette is profitable for the house by offering even money on a less than even odds bet.

For more "sophisticated" bets, such as who will actually win a sports match between two teams, the situation is obviously a little more complicated than a simple coinflip, but the same principle applies - punters are supposed to bet on all kinds of outcomes so that the bookie will make a profit based on the odds alone. However, the key part for successful sports bettors is: These odds do not necessarily reflect real-life odds, so if you are well-informed, you may be able to identify spots where the actual odds of a certain sports outcome may be better than the odds a bookie gives you, thus turning it into a positive expectation bet.

The big question about this is how you get this kind of information - and to be frank, I don't have an answer, which is why I said in the beginning that sports betting is beatable in theory. I have heard of people who can do it, but I don't personally know any. As for myself, I haven't had any luck with it yet. I suppose it can be done if you put a lot of effort into analyzing a certain competition, but I can't help with how to do that.

Even if you know what to look out for, there are certain difficulties:

1.) The odds don't add up to even money (the earlier coinflip example is a good illustration), so there is effectively a kind of "rake" to beat with your decisions.

2.) You have to work with the odds you are given, and certain sports books just may not give you very good odds, especially if you are limited by your location, or live in a country where every bet is automatically taxed. In some cases, you may have to spread your balance across various bookies to identify good odds.

3.) Even if all goes great, any sports book can ultimately exclude you from betting if they feel that they are losing money to you in the long run, and I have heard of cases like this happening. (again, I don't know anyone personally)

As far as I am concerned, sports betting is not something I plan to touch again in the near future, because I simply don't follow professional sports enough and because the available bookies in my location don't tend to offer good odds, as I found out when I compared what was available to me to picks from successful tipsters a few years ago. Nevertheless, if anyone does have any tips on how to identify +EV sports betting odds, I would be interested to hear it too, because the subject is still intriguing.

once when playing at 888 i sportsbetted $100 on Real Madrid soccer team with the odds of 1.4.. i got my $40 but boy was that scary ♦

I used to place sports bets on PokerStars occasionally, but since I can’t do that there anymore I no longer bet on sports. I imagine many people are wagering on Euro 2024 matches right now.

Originally posted by taavi1337

once when playing at 888 i sportsbetted $100 on Real Madrid soccer team with the odds of 1.4.. i got my $40 but boy was that scary ♦

I had a similar situation as a student, when I was still brand new to gambling (including poker) and often liked to make bets on an impulse, so I bet a large sum (for a student) on Borussia Dortmund in their 2012 DFB-Pokal final against Bayern Munich. It may have been up to $100 too.

It started out fine, with Dortmund taking an early lead, then 1-1... and then their main goalkeeper got injured. They brought in some Australian guy that I had never heard of as a substitute, and I got really nervous. Just minutes later, I saw that guy messing around way outside his penalty area... and I was basically in full panic mode.

Meanwhile, I was at my parents' house for the weekend, having a pizza as we were watching the game together, and realizing that I couldn't show a hint of nervousness, as they were pretty anti-gambling in general and would have freaked out if they had known how much I bet on this game. Just like in your case, however, it all worked out, as Dortmund went on to score a convincing 5-2 victory after all.

lol I think i was alone and winning thousands from flhe, so this 1.4 bet was like, i have heard Real is a good team, let's gamble in this casino. i dont know anything about soccer and ofc i didnt watch the match. was lucky enough to scoop it but risking the whole $100 in case the other team wins... makes you think.

Free golden goal bet on Unibet today, had a lucky guess for the prediction of the Euro2024 match between

The Netherlands - England that took place earlier this evening.

Spoiler

And somehow, 34 other people had the same luck, kinda sick if you think about it, I mean, what are the odds of guessing the player and the time of him scoring the first goal, right? Has to be at least 1/22 (possible players scoring) * 1/90 (minutes playing time) * [a number that represents the odds of the individual players scoring, which varies widely] * [chance of scoring the first goal by an individual player]

edit: this is a free bet that you can place on a match that Unibet decides on, the pirzes vary. This had a prize of €50.000 shared upon the winners!

Positive thinking, positive thinking... ! :DD

Originally posted by taavi1337

Positive thinking, positive thinking... ! :DD

Haha, funny that you notice my pessimistic nature... (can be a pitfall in life tbh)

About sportsbetting, it's not that surprising that you might like this type of gambling, when you like playing poker.

Since this type of betting can also have a statistical approach to it, like in poker as a strategy.

It seems to me that the biggest player pool that places bets on matches are probably football fans, who rather place their bet based on emotions / feelings about a certain player or football team.

Variance is also a factor in sportsbetting, when you place a bet on the outcome of 10 matches with a average odds of 1.33 (75% chance of winning) that would give you a possible win of (1.33)^10=17,76 times your stake.

I would compare this with going all-in 10x in a mtt where your average is 75% chance of winning.

The chances of actually winning 10 times in a row are (0,75)^10=0,056%

I do place these kind of bets sometimes, in a way of high (calculated) risk / high reward kind of bet on football matches.

Betting on 1.33 odds avarage as a bet builder on multiple match outcomes seems smarter to me than betting on let's say 10.50 odds of a football team winning a single match.

The upside to this kind of sportsbetting compared to all-ins in a poker mtt is that there is a opportunity to cash out you winnings anytime (when the bet is still valid) when doing sportsbetting, which you can't do when playing a mtt. (Until maybe the deal making at a final table based on your chip EV, where all the players have to get to an agreement.)

Yes but the only bad thing is, you are not playing and betting against these emotional players at sportsbetting table, you are trying to beat the housegiven odds or something.. So you have to be smarter than the big company... In poker it is enought if you can be better than the other player in long run and house takes like what, 1-4%...

Originally posted by Harrier88

I had a similar situation as a student, when I was still brand new to gambling (including poker) and often liked to make bets on an impulse, so I bet a large sum (for a student) on Borussia Dortmund in their 2012 DFB-Pokal final against Bayern Munich. It may have been up to $100 too.

It started out fine, with Dortmund taking an early lead, then 1-1... and then their main goalkeeper got injured. They brought in some Australian guy that I had never heard of as a substitute, and I got really nervous. Just minutes later, I saw that guy messing around way outside his penalty area... and I was basically in full panic mode.

Meanwhile, I was at my parents' house for the weekend, having a pizza as we were watching the game together, and realizing that I couldn't show a hint of nervousness, as they were pretty anti-gambling in general and would have freaked out if they had known how much I bet on this game. Just like in your case, however, it all worked out, as Dortmund went on to score a convincing 5-2 victory after all.

I guess that what you are descibed here is exactly what gets people hooked to sports betting (in general). The extra excitement while watching a game.

Me, feeling like a boomer (actually being GEN Z ;), I like to enjoy the game normally and root for the team that deserves it the most / plays the best (in my opinion)

I have trouble with this internet generation, where everything seems to have become a casino game, with the need for MORE MORE MORE...

(More (fast) money, more exitement, more emotion, more drama, more (extreme) sex, etc.....)

I mean, I tend to treat playing poker differently than casino games (slots) or sports betting ( where sports betting is in between in degree of addictiveness for me)

Originally posted by taavi1337

Yes but the only bad thing is, you are not playing and betting against these emotional players at sportsbetting table, you are trying to beat the housegiven odds or something.. So you have to be smarter than the big company... In poker it is enought if you can be better than the other player in long run and house takes like what, 1-4%...

And yeah, in line of what I said above, the difference in the "gamble factor" (which I interpret as the "addictiveness factor"),

is playing poker against other players instead of playing any other game that you play against the house, where all you can do is pray that the outcomes goes in your favour...

The pittfall in poker for me comes when I start to tilt and my play becomes more that of a gambler, making bad descissions. But overall I can keep a clear balance in my descission making and thinking while playing poker. In contrary to playing slots, where I can lose myself and spend all my money (as all the casino games are created to be)

Make shorter sessions if youre playing online poker, allow yourself to relax. 1table and observe each decision of opponents carefully..

Originally posted by Timmaywin

I guess that what you are descibed here is exactly what gets people hooked to sports betting (in general). The extra excitement while watching a game.

Not sure about that, I expect the people who place a bet to add excitement to the games they watch are mostly casual bettors. The ones who truly get "hooked" are more drawn to the gambling aspect itself, I expect, and probably place bets on loads of games they don't even watch. Especially with the "internet generation" thing you described, where these kinds of people would probably just follow their big amount of games via some live updates on their smartphone or something.

My personal approach to sports betting was usually the same as my approach to poker, I guess. Back in 2012, when I got started, they both were a casual gamble to me. When I attempted to pick sports betting up again 6-7 years ago, I tried (unsuccessfully) to turn it into a +EV game like I had done with poker in the meantime.

Originally posted by Timmaywin

The pittfall in poker for me comes when I start to tilt and my play becomes more that of a gambler, making bad descissions. But overall I can keep a clear balance in my descission making and thinking while playing poker. In contrary to playing slots, where I can lose myself and spend all my money (as all the casino games are created to be)

As I have hinted at above, I have been in a similar situation in the past, and I got out of it with the opposite kind of thinking: Instead of approaching poker with the mindset of a gambler, I started approaching gambling with the mindset of a poker player - which means that you realize that every kind of casino game against the house is like knowingly putting your chips in with bad pot odds in poker. And this, in turn, should lead you to believe that you should basically never ever play casino games, unless you are on vacation and set aside a small balance of money to burn in a casino for fun, or something like that.

At least it worked for me, and it also made it easy to drop sports betting when I realized that I wasn't beating it.

Originally posted by taavi1337

Yes, but the only downside is that you are not playing and wagering against those emotional players at sportsbetting table — you're attempting to beat the house-provided odds or something. So you must outthink the large company... In poker it's sufficient to be better than the other player over the long run and the house takes, what, 1-4%...

I think it’s more precise to say you’re trying to beat "the market." A sportsbook’s odds are ideally set so the bookie has the edge regardless of the event’s outcome, by balancing bets on both sides. If bets become too one-sided, the house would assume risk itself if the result goes against them. So you’re not directly trying to outguess their predictions, but rather the general public sentiment, if that makes sense. In that way it’s somewhat like forex trading.

Still, that doesn’t change the fact that if you’re profitable, the house is effectively losing money to you, which doesn’t happen in poker. That means there’s no guarantee you’ll keep your welcome mat if you win consistently, as — no sportsbook is obliged to retain any bettor. You know what casinos do to blackjack players who count cards to swing the odds their way.

Then again, some poker sites seem increasingly likely to do this too, if threads like this are any indication (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=545108)...

Nowadays it's almost impossible to beat overall betting markets in the long run. Those who bet professionally, look for valuebets. That is when a single booker has an error in their odds. As an example, consensus is that TEAM A is 50% favorite to win the game. Without comission the odds would be 2.0, with comission the odds might be 1.95. If the 50% estimation is accurate, most bookers set the line to 1.95-2.0. One booker might have an error in their estimations, giving TEAM A odds of 2.10. When that happens, there will be quite many bets on that 2.10 which alerts the booker. When a single selection has more than normal activity, booker is alerted (or the odds drop automatically to prevent damage). Selection is either closed or odds are lowered instantly. Pro bettors have automated systems that scan bookers, and they try to catch those valuebets before they are closed or corrected. Just like in poker, if you make +EV bets constantly, in the long run you should make money.

Another way to make +EV valuebetting is with promotions, where you get extra monetary value for betting.

But if someone thinks that their thought about a game can beat the whole market, that's quite absurd. It might be true if one has inside information about the rosters, players or game. But if the whole market sees the game with certain odds, it's pretty much always quite correct. Your feelings can't beat it.

Originally posted by Kyyberi

But if someone thinks that their thought about a game can beat the whole market, that's quite absurd. It might be true if one has inside information about the rosters, players or game. But if the whole market sees the game with certain odds, it's pretty much always quite correct. Your feelings can't beat it.

...and with popular sports having so many passionate followers who greatly over-estimate their own expertise, it is not hard to imagine how sports betting is profitable for the bookies.

I can still imagine, at least in theory, that it could be possible to beat the given odds if someone had an insane understanding of the underlying factors to estimate accurate winning chances. I highly doubt that it would be possible simply based on publicly available knowledge, though, especially since this kind of information should already be reflected by the bookie's odds. So yes, we are essentially talking about "inside knowledge" being required, more or less.

In the past there were bettors who used Xgoal type of calculations (Xgoal is kind of EVgoal. How many goals given team is expected to produce in the current situation) and could beat the bookers. But in modern era there is so much statistics and information, that bookers are really good in calculating it all.

If someone has really good understanding of a game, they could use that information in live betting. Usually in live betting the booker has bigger comission (and therefore margin of error) but the odds are automated via algorithms. One good example is Super Bowl few years ago. I told in stream about offense vs defense matchup, and how Kansas City has been really good against certain defensive setting, which is against all odds and logic. And I told to bet on Kansas City win, if opponent plays that defense in the beginning of the game. It was spot on, and that factor was not calculated in live betting odds.

Another example is that when watching a game you see a key player hurting himself on warmups. If it's even unsure whether that player could play, it changes the probabilities. That is not relfected on odds until the change is made to official rosters.

Originally posted by Harrier88

Originally posted by taavi1337

Yes but the only bad thing is, you are not playing and betting against these emotional players at sportsbetting table, you are trying to beat the housegiven odds or something.. So you have to be smarter than the big company... In poker it is enought if you can be better than the other player in long run and house takes like what, 1-4%...

I think it is more accurate to say that you are trying to beat "the market". The odds from the sports book are ideally supposed to be in the bookie's favor no matter what the outcome of the bet is, by getting people to bet evenly. If the bets were too polarized, the house would end up taking a risk itself, in case the result won't be in their favor. So you are not directly trying to beat their predictions, but more like the general public opinion, if that makes sense. I guess it's a bit like forex trading in that regard.

Still, this doesn't change the fact that if you are doing well, the house is effectively losing money against you, which is not the case in poker. This means that there is no guarantee that you will keep your welcome mat if you are winning in the long run, as no sport book is under any obligation to keep any bettors. You know what casinos tend to do to blackjack players who are counting cards to tip the odds in their favor.

Then again, some poker sites seem to be increasingly prone to this too, if threads like this are any indication (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/thread.php?threadid=545108)...

Yeah, for first to win, you need to estimate the outcome of a sports event, a game, for example, better than the house (the casino). Let's say they say it is 25% the soccer team will win a certain match. Whoever bets $10 on the win of that team, gets $40 if that team wins. But let's say you know that team is better than 25% to win that game, you estimate, it is likely to win it 75% of the time. Then that bet on them would be a good bet. But how to get such good information to outwit the casino's analysis on the match?

Originally posted by taavi1337

But how to get such good information to outwit the casino's analysis on the match?

There is a site that gives additional statistics on the odds of winning (Sofascore), examples of this:

Sometimes there is a big difference between the given odds and the actual odds, which makes a good bet.

Sometimes a team actually has worse odds than the given odds and the opponent has better odds of winning than the given odds.

So that site has somehow hired a better analyst than the casino site? Who can predict results of sport games better?

That does make it more intriguing, but ultimately you're still making an educated guess when you use the odds to try to win money.

Well, you can check odds from different bookers. Let's say that 90% of bookers estimate TEAM A to win with 60% chance, and one booker estimates it to win 55% chance. Now a site picks it and posts it as a good bet. It's not that their analystics are better, they just see that one booker deviates from the overall line.

Before comparing odds across bookmakers, I suggest pinpointing 2-3 reliable bookmakers where you feel comfortable placing your wager.

The market is flooded with dubious platforms nowadays.

Indeed. I would only bet on sites that I trust like PokerStars and Unibet for example.

My experience with sports betting has been a mix of excitement and caution. It’s thrilling to engage with various sports and analyze games for potential bets. However, it's crucial to set limits and gamble responsibly, as it can quickly lead to financial losses if not approached carefully.

Originally posted by Enacla

My experience with sports betting has been a mix of excitement and caution. It’s thrilling to engage with various sports and analyze games for potential bets. However, it's crucial to set limits and gamble responsibly, as it can quickly lead to financial losses if not approached carefully.

Indeed, but that's with poker and investing money in something as well the case.

Usually poker is (or can be) +EV, while sports betting tends to be -EV.

But.

The odd thing is that for big, popular events the odds should be fairly realistic. Yet when large numbers of people start wagering on something, markets often shift to manage risk. A skilled bettor can sometimes exploit those shifts to find value. The Super Bowl is likely the single most bet-on event worldwide, so one might assume the lines closely mirror reality. I may have been lucky, but for the past 3 years my Super Bowl wagers have hit about 85% of the time.

And now that I’ve mentioned that, I’ll probably lose every bet this season.

Indeed, but you only invest in poker, betting or other investments money you can miss.

Poker is a fast-pace game, sportsbetting is trying to bet on other fast-pace sportsgames, such as soccer, basketball.

A good way to improve your analysis is to break each hand down step by step rather than just focusing on the result. Start with preflop ranges — think about what both you and your opponent can realistically have. Then go street by street, asking yourself how ranges change based on actions and board texture.

It also helps to review hands where you felt uncertain, not just big wins or losses. Try to identify if your decisions were based on solid reasoning or just instinct. If possible, use solvers or tracking software to compare your line with more optimal strategies.

Finally, don’t overcomplicate things — focus on understanding common spots deeply instead of trying to analyze everything at once. Consistency in review is more important than volume.

Originally posted by bellamore

A good way to sharpen your analysis is to dissect each hand step by step instead of only concentrating on the final outcome.

Hi bellamore,

Welcome to PokerStrategy.com

By the way, this conversation concerns sports betting and is almost a year old.

Why not take a moment to introduce yourself (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/board.php?boardid=1465)?

Tell us which games you play and similar details.

Cheers,

VS

Thread is even 21 months old, but basicly dead on the moment.

Yeah, I once bet 100€ on Real Madrid to beat an unknown club in 2013 and won +40€. That's my only experience. I was asking if anyone has good experience with sports betting.

I am part of a community of professional sports bettors. For bookers, someone estimates the odds for events, based on statistics and models. Not all bookers do their own estimations, they often buy them from one provider. But there are multiple providers, each of them doing the estimations independently. Odds providers have to do analyzis and estimations for MANY different sports, and it would be impossible to have very precise model for each of those. They protect themselves with higher "juice" (the amount that site takes as a fee, sort of a rake) and lower limits for bettors. Professional bettors have their own models, and if they can make better estimations than the odds providers, they will find +EV bets. Let's say I have a model for national ice hockey league, and in my model team A is 53% favorite to win. Booker estimates it to be below 50, and gives odds of 2.0. That is +EV bet on my model, so I place the bet. Just like in poker, if an action is +EV I do it. And in the long run, results should come close to EV. After thousands of bets, I can estimate if my model is working or not. Just like in poker, after longer period of time I can see if my estimations of +EV spots is correct or not.

The closer we are to an even, the closer all odds on different bookers get. In professional betting there is a term CLV, closing line value. Which means that when the even starts, market has corrected the odds to be pretty precise the actual real odds. The further we are from an even, the more spread there might be between bookers. Example, when market opens to a game that is few days ahead, booker A estimates is to be 40-60 and booker B estimates it to be 30-70. Both of them can't be "correct", and market usually shows which one is more incorrect, as that result will get more bets placed to it. Little by little the odds will get closer between bookers, and when the even starts probably both bookers have the same estimation, like 45-55. Professional bettors usually place most of their bets just when the markets open, as the closer the event it the less value there is to be found.

Thanks! I was also wondering if one can find +EV spots to participate in correct events physically. Let's say there's this soccer "legend" who is in really bad shape but boasts with his soccer skills at kids playground to gain attention from women. So let's say I go there with my two sons, all in really good sports shape but we know nothing about soccer. So now we make the gameplay really fast physically because we have better stamina etc, so the "legend" starts to?

I find the whole topic really fascinating, fun and educational, as people form really strong fan communities here around team sport games, such as basketball, volleyball, soccer. Such as: "to my girlfriend it really matters how our son's soccer club performs". But let's say I root for the other team who is more professional, the supporters of son's club can't freaking find then what is going on.

For real money betting, I guess one has to somehow know more about sports than the bookers of the casinos. This I consider impossible at the moment for me. But what if I train running etc and everyone else at that part of town are watching TV and so on. I might have strong edge then at the local elections if I would apply.

Market is really good in reacting to all kinds of variables. The key in professional sports betting is also to react faster than some bookers. Even nowadays, some bookers react to Premier League or NHL lineups 1-2 hours later after they are published. I know there are a lot of bettors who check the lineups when they are published, and make bets if booker hasn't reacted yet to major changes in those lineups.

Another example is in esports, where xR (round wins expectation, same as xGoals in football or hockey) is not a common thing. Bookers base their estimations on results, while professional bettors watch games and estimate xR. Which is a bit better estimation of the power levels of the teams than results. And they can see if a team runs "over EV" or "under EV", which is not shown in booker's odds. If couple of years, AI will calculate xR for esports too, and that edge will disappear.

Yes I've never really taken sportsbetting professionally, normally I am watching a good game and rooting for one team for some personal reasons. Maybe if one watches a certain league often enough, such as NBA or Premier League, they will start to notice patterns that will give them edge in estimating the outcome. I wouldn't mind just watching NBA and practicing basketball for example. I wonder what a bet would do to my life in such scenario. In soccer, after I made the 100€ bet on Real Madrid, it really pulled me towards soccer about 12 years later as a really positive memory. (I am not playing in a team, but I very much enjoy playing "joke soccer" vs kids and beating them with speed, skill etc trying to be a fun example. They always love that.)

Often when I'm watching a game featuring the team I root for, I bet on the opposing team. It's a win-win: either my team wins or I make some money. Without that, watching Raiders games would be pretty painful....

I've never seen an NFL game, but to me it seems somewhat like ice hockey — only played in summer?

Isn't that American football? That doesn't resemble ice hockey. Completely different sport.

Originally posted by SDK1987

Isn't that American football? That doesn't resemble ice hockey. Completely different sport.

Heavy physical contact and helmets

Originally posted by taavi1337

I've never watched an NFL game, but it seems a little like ice hockey played in the summer?

Nice one

Perhaps this example fits your description better; it's from Ireland:

The Magic of Hurling II HD - YouTube

Tap to unmute

The Magic of Hurling II HD (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1Vw66Zs0dQ)rimbaud82 (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChff60xK-AZXYjlxaX80wag) rimbaud822.5K subscribers

Originally posted by wickus

Originally posted by taavi1337

Never watched a NFL game but I think it is a bit like ice hockey, but in summer?

Nice one

Maybe this would come your definition a bit closer, but it's in Ireland:

The Magic of Hurling II HD - YouTube

Tap to unmute

The Magic of Hurling II HD (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I1Vw66Zs0dQ)rimbaud82 (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChff60xK-AZXYjlxaX80wag) rimbaud822.5K subscribers

Yes like golf but everyone is running at the same time, that is microstakes online poker (trying to hit and pain as they clash)

I believe it's a sport that remains unfamiliar in many countries.

I think online poker could also be considered uncommon sports, there in a way you make a bet to the casino that you can make more money than the rake %. For example if a DoN SnG has 20% rake, with a buy-in you kind of make a bet to the casino that your ROI will be higher than 20%.

Poker can be considered a mind sport akin to chess. Achieving a higher ROI for 20% is difficult when the rake is already 20%. DONs are a rather unforgiving format. I'm not convinced that figure is realistic, and 20% rake is substantial.

Yes, I’ve had enough — I played 88 x 0.10 € SnGs over 5 months. The rake was 20%, but I ended up with a +9% ROI. The reason I kept playing was the bonuses, which pushed the overall ROI to +173%. We have no sample and I also entered some tourneys, but I find the whole thing insane. Still, it was enjoyable alongside regular sports training.

I get it. Including the bonus, it starts to make sense to play it, and 9% the ROI on a small sample isn't that terrible given how much rake is involved.

I consider it amazing such as a gaming adventure, im in a new NLHE SnG world now. Another positive surprise is that I opened savings acc at my bank for poker bankroll and I have like 140€ bankroll there for poker, and the bank already has given +3 Buy-ins of interest money just because it is a saving account. There are many ways to cover variance, increasing the bankroll is one of them, moving down the stakes is another, but I wish to remain at real-money stakes which mostly start from $0.10. For that I need a 100€ bankroll as I decided to use 1000+ buy-in BRM.

I have thought about buying more SnG content but I wasn't ready for that, as this was really new to me. But yes, what I have learned from a MTT coach, we can't have that super high ROI, we just need to focus on playing our best in a certain NLHE way. So let's say I have 160€ bankroll instead of 100€ bankroll, suddenly there is no pressure at $0.10 buy-in level and so on. The rake isn't that big of a problem if the games are affordable; of course I would prefer a positive ROI buth there is also a good point about charity tournaments that have 100% rake.

That's indeed a great development. I'm not playing DON's, but with 50% of members getting paid the variance shouldn't be to crazy.

I love DoNs i think it is a great game, people want 15min entertainment with high chance of winning... also people dont know at all how to play bubble and play way too loose there. What causes variance is that some DoNs start ~25bb deep with blinds rapidly increasing, so you still sometimes push KQo into A3o and stuff.

That's good for experience players that the weaker players beating each other and you get more often ITM.

Originally posted by taavi1337

I love DoNs i think it is a great game, people want 15min entertainment with high chance of winning... also people dont know at all how to play bubble and play way too loose there. What causes variance is that some DoNs start ~25bb deep with blinds rapidly increasing, so you still sometimes push KQo into A3o and stuff.

I used to play these a lot, but they don't exist any more on 888, and I don't play on Party these days, so I don't see them much.

I once managed to catch a collusion ring on Party though. That was fun. There were several players all from the same country, and they would sit 4 at a table and wait until it filled up, then cooperate. I started taking video captures of the tables, and turned them in. I got back all the money I lost on the tables where I didn't win.

Originally posted by SDK1987

That's good for experience players that the weaker players beating each other and you get more often ITM.

Lol this looks such a good strategy but then you find yourself 4bb deep with 5 people left and it makes you question things

Originally posted by VorpalF2F

Originally posted by taavi1337

I love DoNs i think it is a great game, people want 15min entertainment with high chance of winning... also people dont know at all how to play bubble and play way too loose there. What causes variance is that some DoNs start ~25bb deep with blinds rapidly increasing, so you still sometimes push KQo into A3o and stuff.

I used to play these a lot, but they don't exist any more on 888, and I don't play on Party these days, so I don't see them much.

I once managed to catch a collusion ring on Party though. That was fun. There were several players all from the same country, and they would sit 4 at a table and wait until it filled up, then cooperate. I started taking video captures of the tables, and turned them in. I got back all the money I lost on the tables where I didn't win.

Ok this puzzle is of otherworldly difficulty. I think good BRM (1000 bi+) is the direction. I also reduced my intended monthly to 4 x 0.10€ buy-ins starting from June, as i played way too high recently. Will take it from there, if all goes well, i could maybe add volume soon.

It's I think 1 of the toughest poker formats.

World cup soccer is coming. Any guesses who will win this time?

Guesses or estimated probabilities?

Originally posted by SDK1987

It's I think 1 of the toughest poker formats.

World cup soccer is coming. Any guesses who will win this time?

I believe Brazil has worked their way up and will win.

We will see. I think Spain, Argentina, Germany and France has decent changes as well.

Yes, I'm worried Argentina might retain the title and overcome Brazil's samba-style play. Portugal also fields Ronaldo, who could prove dangerous. This concerns me.

Originally posted by taavi1337

Yes, I'm worried Argentina might defend their title and overcome the Brazilian samba style. Portugal also has Ronaldo on their side, which could prove dangerous. That worries me.

I know so little about the sport that I wouldn't risk betting on anyone. In Pele's era I used to watch matches, but over time I've lost interest in pro sports. It now feels absurd to spend hours watching millionaires play. I even tried following some Stanley Cup games this year while Montreal was still competing, but I soon lost interest.

That one $100 bet that I made many years ago on Real Madrid club soccer team, brought me closer to this sport. I think it has fun strategic elements and is worth playing with kids; but I personally don't bet on it either at the moment and I also don't participate in real league or a team in soccer.

I hate the Pele worship, I wish they would focus more on actually supporting their kids but people are people, we all have our faults

I'm not doing any betting either, but that free prediction contest that I joined at the last minute at least made me interested in the event, watching matches that I otherwise would have ignored. So far, I am enjoying the World Cup, as a result.

Brazil first match wasn't to impressive, but Morocco is maybe 1 of the outsiders to get far like last time.

This brings to mind that my friend, who used to gamble, showed me a soccer match on his phone. Now I suspect his laptop was damaged, even though he did own one.

Alright. I hope he wasn't dependent on it.

He's into real estate currently, so I can't really tell... For me these "phone addicts" are actually worse, as they mess up relationships etc... A good tabletop computer would lead to bigger systems. Too much gambling can be horrible to one's family, but it has unknown, unexpected and surprising results, that are impossible to predict...

I understand. In the end the majority of the addictions are bad. Those mobile phones are indeed a mess. I see daily people using them during a bicycle trip when I walk or bicycle through the town. Very dangerous I think. Especially with decent amount of traffic around. At least bicycle and car lanes are seperate of each other most of the time, but accidents between bicycles aren't harmfull either with a lot of fast e-bikes around.

i never find them... theyre always on their phones. "social but social with others there is very little i can do then. It is dangerous to consider person holding the other phone many kilometres away to be more important than one's actual surroundings. Kittens remind me of this truth when they are trying to jump on the keyboard while Im in a SnG.

Not sure it's so social to be online all the time on with way you can think of.

Well yes sitting at computer for hours I can understand since age 5; looking at a 4'' phone screen for more than 3 minutes at once feels limited. As if you went to India to explore local culture but took your radio with you to listen if feeling lonely...

People have their ways here though (Northern Estonia) and I am also becoming more of a phone person...

What strikes me about the "phone vs PC" discussion is that I actually tried the PC route: with only adolescent-level skills in game development I rapidly earned +2000€ within a few months using a handful of second-hand laptops that kids could freely use to learn game development with guidance. Meanwhile, other adults were busy arguing about how their child snatched their 3.2'' Android phone from 2010.

Thinks are developing fast for sure. Had positive and negative aspects like life in general.

Anyway any bets for WC matches on the moment?

Originally posted by SDK1987

Thinks are developing fast for sure. Had positive and negative aspects like life in general.

Anyway any bets for WC matches on the moment?

What is your BRM in those? Like, if I wanted to bet $1 on Brazil beating Norway, how much bankroll would be good to place that bet? $1000? I find this topic interesting but I currently don't place these bets.

Originally posted by taavi1337

What is your BRM in those? Like, if I wanted to bet $1 on Brazil beating Norway, how much bankroll would be good to place that bet? $1000? I find this topic interesting but I currently don't place these bets.

Unless you're planning to keep betting in the long run - which, as it has been pointed out before, is quite hard to do profitably without some very dedicated information gathering - you should treat it as any other "side bet", which means that you would bet whatever you feel comfortable losing. No need for any strict BRM guidelines if you only make one bet for fun, just play responsibly.

Originally posted by Harrier88

Originally posted by taavi1337

What is your BRM in those? Like, if I wanted to bet $1 on Brazil beating Norway, how much bankroll would be good to place that bet? $1000? I find this topic interesting but I currently don't place these bets.

Unless you're planning to keep betting in the long run - which, as it has been pointed out before, is quite hard to do profitably without some very dedicated information gathering - you should treat it as any other "side bet", which means that you would bet whatever you feel comfortable losing. No need for any strict BRM guidelines if you only make one bet for fun, just play responsibly.

Yes but what if we really contact the brokers and TV channels that sell relevant info about these matches

I haven't placed sports bets at over the past few years. Games look straightforward to forecast, yet I doubt many expected a 0-0 in the Spain versus Cape Verde match.

Well yes as you said if it's like 1.14 odds Spain vs Cape Verde islands, it isnt worth to make that $1 bet cause the risk would be too high. But people are really hyping the Norway "vikings" which I think are actually way weaker vs Brazil than people estimate. But I don't play that high at the moment, I think I personally would prefer a 1000-bet-BRM in sportsbetting and I currently dont have $1000 free money to use.

Time will tell. So far Brazil hasn't been very impressive..

Very difficult tournament, I personally am super happy how they have already achieved that dream position. Their local fans also seemed to feel that way. Of course you can hate the WC and still win but there is some type of free and enjoying attitude that both South Africa Republic and Brazil have. They love those opportunities or something.

Outstanding display from Brazil. Long live Neymar. Sadly it wasn’t sufficient against Norway, but a good outcome.

The penalty miss of Brazil cost them most likely the match. The 2nd penalty Brazil was already in losing position. Neymar isn't so good as like 8 years ago.

They were sensing the style of the opp and gathering data about their attack tactics... A country like Brazil can afford a defeat in cheaper end tournaments such as World Cup. Isnt always worth it to pursuit the max result. I think Norway will absolutely hate their next games.

Norway versus England should be an interesting match for sure. At last 8 you can't expect any easy matches anymore.

I still think Norway has a reasonable chance to win. England isn't playing very well and it seems like Norway is more of a cohesive team than England.

Both are like super expensive countries but i guess one can dumster drive..

Originally posted by taavi1337

Both are like super expensive countries but i guess one can dumster drive..

I think Switzerland takes the cake when it comes to expensive countries. Let's see how their game vs Colombia goes in a few minutes.

The Argentina vs Egypt game was crazy, btw. Too bad Egypt didn't make it in the end, I still can't believe they gave it away like that. I think they played quite well all tournament long, it would have been exciting to follow their progress a little more.

Yes, I believe that in the end Messi wasn't interested in that defeat and composed himself. For a few minutes we witnessed an almost ancient fanbase confronting total unfamiliarity... That's all the information I could gather; soon professional soccer resumed, which I don't know anything about.

Is anyone placing bets on sports or political events other than soccer?

Switserland actually won. I'm not placing any bets right now.

Who do you all think will win the World Cup final — Spain or Argentina?

Originally posted by SDK1987

Who do you all think will win the World Cup final: Spain or Argentina?

I'm rooting for Spain, but based on what I've observed Argentina has looked incredibly strong.

I think Spain has 65% likelihood, but I’d be thrilled if Messi tucks another trophy into his collection. I reckon both sides have their chances.

We will see over 6 hours when the match starts.

I think it was a good victory for Spain. It finally became exciting after Spain scored the goal in extra time.

Yeah now we have these more local stars that people wanted, Olmo, Yamal, Oyerzabal... Was too tough for the defending champion Argentina. Will see about other leagues... Maybe in 2030 I will have that $1000 to place $1 bets on teams like Spain in the next World Cup.

We will see. First qualifications for it and maybe even with 64 teams next time.

yes maybe other planets as well than Earth, such as Jupiter

At jupiter we can't play. Most likely heavier gravity and atmosphere is bad.

When I run these kinds of tournaments (FIFA - the Federation of Soccer), I usually let the kids set the pace, the duration, most rules, and 50% of the opponent's skill level (me). I sometimes stop after 1,5 hours instead of playing 2 hours, particularly when they begin to mess around earlier (signs of boredom, etc.).

The League of Nations (World Cup) is another animal though. I think they barely managed to pull off the huge tournament this time, but it worked. It seems they (FIFA) simply don't have much beyond soccer skills ♠_thumbsup: When the bands performed, everyone left after the show and ignored that odd kind of ball sport.. But well done! Well done USA!

As I mentioned, I'm still recovering from the hangover of this tournament party, so not ready to plan the next one. I hear it's in London? Doesn't make a big difference. I'm actually pleasantly surprised by the soccer ability in local port cities (Tallinn, Amsterdam, London). I'd keep it small but the crowd might again demand a large event like 1 year before it starts so they'll have to take that impossible risk, I'm afraid...

As I said, the tournament itself isn't important but there are fans who insist on those.

I think FiFa is just for soccer. I'm not keen on another expansion of the WC to 64 teams. That would make the group stage drearier, with more weaker nations included.

Yea it isnt like the best league to watch, but i havent ordered that PokerGO or NBA subscription yet. I watched a bit of Serie A the Italy club league in soccer, that was very aggresive... Also FIBA the Euro Basketball was nice. Atm i dont get why i am that person from whom fifa league is being asked, its her tv that is sitting offline for 7 years. But it has to be the national federation or im a bad person if its only clubs. Will try to understand further those requests

At least the KO stages was interesting at most part. Seria A seems like a tough competition without a team that's winning all the time

Yes it can be tough losing with a club. My son doesnt quite like that (9yearold). But I believe it is the choice of their coach to enter the tougher competitions. I also didnt like when we travelled to Northern Finland with boys volleyball team for 2 week competition and finished in 4th place without any award ~(900 teams) and like 30% chance in the Bronze match. But I think coaches are like that, they want to train players like that. Not sure.

I have found these people who demand fifa from big tv just want free stuff + money for free; which isnt even impossible to get.

Can't wait to enter a real soccer league, teaming up with my son when he grows up and have a $1000 bankroll for making $1 bets on soccer teams Current poker BR: 350€

I'm more a fan to play soccer myself than betting on it. Can't no bet on my matches in the lowest league of the Netherlands for reserve teams.

Yes during military service we tried to get rich on our spare time, some playing on Full Tilt or PokerStars, some doing sportsbetting... The sportsbetting guys actually went to gym while the poker hustlers didnt...

I can't play on PokerStars anymore. So no poker on the moment either.

I "can't" play on PokerStars either, as they raised the minimum buyin to $0.5 which would require $500 bankroll with my current BRM. Looking forward to improve that situation ♠_confused:

50c SNG's. So the cheap 25c MTT SNG's aren't avalaible anymore.

Yes, $0.48 FLHE cashgame is removed, and everything below $0.50 tournaments is removed. Partypoker has also more recently removed everything below $0.25 3-man Spins, which start 15bb deep.

Those spins the variance is huge. Than 100 buy-inns isn't enough either.

Yes i dont know, to grind those or play comfortably i would want like 2000 buyin bankroll, which is around $500. I dont see that type of development in my life in the near future (till end of year); but if relationships go well, i could save a bit from gamedev education income; looking to build a correct poker career without gamble.

You never know what life brings, but playing safe is indeed best with spins.

That is true, we don't know all. I see there are super lovely games going on up to 1€ buyin level also, so my overall aim is for a bigger roll, needed to fix some too big risks first, though. Stabile, motivated, volume-goals based approach will work wonders, I believe. And a good bankroll management it helps to create the stability and stabile sports practices. For me in a way it feels like going back to the place that I love (going back to more normal bankroll management), after trying out some difficult challenges on higher stakes (life adventures, sub-zero sports (no money lifestyles), high risk business deeds)...

Indeed. A stable lifestyle is best.

New soccer season just started. Any predictions for it?

Professional soccer? I always find the arena so small. My prediction is, no surprises will happen in Estonian men's league. Flora, Levadia... Getting better at high corner shots with flip-flops. As I said, with $1000 roll I could place $1 bets; but reality is, bought some consoles for my company with 400€. I think same as in any other sports, gamblers suffer their deeds and top ones take their coach seriously. Other national leagues/WC/EURO I usually dont follow; Serie A Italy was fun but costs like 15€/month to watch.

Indeed. At least Dutch competition is now 2 legs underway.

Looks fun and strong those players from TV. I've only been to Amsterdam Airport once when visiting India. I am positively surprised about the player level in Netherlands and Estonia.

It's a interesting competition with most of the time 3 clubs that's competing for the title.

In the end money has a bad impact for the Dutch competition. Is hard to keep the most talented Dutch players here.

When I was younger I watched live basketball a ton or some live volleyball as amateur volleyball player; soccer I think is fun to play too aggressively such as ground hockey or ice hockey, but I never really watched live soccer. Now when son joined a team I have watched like few kids games which were quite fun. Nowadays why not sip some coffee and bet on Dutch league, maybe even watch these games from paid channels.... Not sure. I find these games (soccer) like player technique-wise too difficult to watch, like I cannot understand how they did what and why. This makes it boring for me to watch soccer even from TV. I guess I am not familiar with this sports much. Now we build two beautiful soccer goals for kids at countryside, this was fun.

I think it can really depends where you come from what for sports are popular or not. Volleyball and especially baskjetball isn't to popular in the Netherlands and Soccer, Ice speed skating and field hockey are very popular

That is true. Like everyone in North Estonia is running and playing soccer, while everyone in South Estonia was playing basketball, volleyball, poker indoors.

I think what we shud do, is to create like really big soccer field, with forests, fields, obstacles in it.

That would be a complete different game.

Yes, the actual fans would still enjoy their 11×11 pitch, while we go hiking with our grownup sons with poker set in backpack, not far from food stores.

Posted by: @taavi1337 ↑ (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/postid/3581427/)

Yes, the actual fans would still enjoy their 11×11 pitch, while we go hiking with our grownup sons with poker set in backpack, not far from food stores.

And perhaps a beer or two?

A soccer poker format game. Sounds funny.

"Do what no-one does. Leave tomorrow at sunrise." -Gandalf, the grey old wizard

Posted by: @vorpalf2f ↑ (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/postid/3581432/)

Posted by: @taavi1337 ↑ (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/postid/3581427/)

Yes, the actual fans would still enjoy their 11×11 pitch, while we go hiking with our grownup sons with poker set in backpack, not far from food stores.

And perhaps a beer or two?

Very very difficult question. They will probably have separate homes, right... Would be so sick to take them from college homes to go through forest by tenting... if you have your tavern there... wouldnt say no to a good beer of any type.

Posted by: @sdk1987 ↑ (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/postid/3581453/)

A soccer poker format game. Sounds funny.

Many people actually did that in Estonia, they created poker professionals forum + their own soccer club called FC PokerPros and joined leagues and stuff. Super sick and doesnt look funny, quite serious content... which they hide kind of. Which is funny.

That is the main difference for me too. In sports betting, at least there is something to study: lineups, injuries, team form and whether the odds have reacted to new information. It does not guarantee an edge, but there is still room for analysis.

With crash games such as JetX (https://betfm.com/slots/jetx-crash-game/), the outcome is controlled by the game mathematics, so following football closely would not give the player the same potential informational advantage. If I were betting on the Dutch league, I would probably keep the stakes very small and treat it as an extra reason to follow the matches rather than as a reliable way to make money.

Yes lets say i somehow get 4% ROI in soccer sportsbetting with 1000buyin brm; but by studying injuries I could get to 5% ROI; that would be super nice life.

Put 0,10€ on FC Liverpool on tonight's game... This could bring me 0,05€ if Liverpool wins.

()

So far going great... towards 50% ROI...

()

Not bad. Not the toughest prediction. A win is a win. Keep it up.

Yup I love to be back, sportsbetting on EU club soccer leagues after 13 years again... I believe it kind of takes me closer to these clubs as a fan.

Waking up near Paldiski and seeing the starry sky, I remember. I remember where I am. I have seen this sky before, many times. I served in the army here about 16 years ago. It is also mentioned in the FLHE Blog. This isn't exactly Paldiski where I am nature-wise, but very close to it. It is the capital of Estonia - Tallinn.

()

It's hard to see indeed on a picture. In real it looks most likely better.

Yes posted in wrong thread but whatever. It is hard to recall memories older than 16 years ago.

Is there also like political betting options? I think I have seen one can bet on elections or something? I think the leftwing is getting way too aggressive in my region and risking their reputation...

I expect you can bet on almost everything

Yes, looking for profitable bets, but I guess I need to make mistakes along the way...

Than you can learn from it as well.

Next one is more difficult. Real Madrid vs Elche in 5 days, 1.30 that Real Madrid wins. Put 0,10€ bet. Could bring 30% ROI. Looked at standings this time before. Also Real Madrid just beat Inter somehow. Hoping for a clear victory vs bottom of La Liga leaderboard. Let's see how it goes.

Seems like a pretty straight forward bet. Normal easy win for Real, but you never know for sure.

Yes I love those top clubs. Is more relatable than B league community building clubs, but as my sons are there, im fan of that. They do very good community building.

Made another bet on reigning champion New York Knicks to beat Philadelphia 76s in NBA.

Game happens on October 21st. Could bring 50% ROI, I still believe Knicks is still that strong.

()

That's for me less obvious who the best team is. Not to familiar with the NBA.

Ye ye the champions kinda switch but i watched a lot NBA the last few years. We will see. -0,10€ on October 21st wouldn't be too big damage for me for my bankroll. The thing is, what was going on here in family, was complete madness, neighbors kids visiting, yelling. Because of this uncertain situation i cant play normal poker session. So i bet on sports, could bring same ROI. But good to know that is uncertain situation here in this area.

Yeah and you only play with small amount of money. So not much risk indeed.

Made another bet, Manchester City vs Sunderland, also 1.3 chance and betsize 0,10€. Will happen on September 20th. So now I have 3 bets waiting to bring income.

That should be a easy win for City, but we will see.

Posted by: @taavi1337 ↑ (https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/postid/3582185/)

Next one is more difficult. Real Madrid vs Elche in 5 days, 1.30 that Real Madrid wins. Put 0,10€ bet. Could bring 30% ROI. Looked at standings this time before. Also Real Madrid just beat Inter somehow. Hoping for a clear victory vs bottom of La Liga leaderboard. Let's see how it goes.

Close overtime thriller Elche almost stealing my money, but well done, Real!

()

Was closer than expected.

Yup looks like Madrid was attack-oriented and Elche found some defense leaks. Madrid needed those points to be able to compete with Barcelona. Could have been costly draw vs bottom of leaderboard. Sick goals by Elche, wasnt too much enjoyed by RM i guess.

Man City vs Sunderland in 2 days on Sunday, again could bring +0,03€ if City wins. Not seeing a loss to Sunderland happening, and a draw I believe would also be a catastrophy to City. Waiting for the match in good mood

Normal easy win for City, but we will see what will happen.

Looks intense. Hoping for clear win, 3:2 lead could not be enough.

()

Brobbey from Sunderland scoring hat trick but City still leading... towards 30% ROI

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Haaland increasing our odds with a nice goal.

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City - Sunderland 5:3 bringing sportsbetting profits to +0,11€ at 0,10€ buyin level. I have one more 0,10€ bet on Knicks vs 76ers at NBA which will happen near end of October.

Was a crazy match I guess with 8 goals. Didn't watched it

Was interesting match for sure. A bit thrilling to bet in unknown sports. But went well luckily.

Normal it would be a easy victory of City, but is always a risk.

Yes, the thing is, even a draw would be a loss for me in the league games. So is more difficult to guess, as there are three possible results. What if they don't care in the end and are happy with 1:1 or something.

Indeed, but in the end you always take a risk and if you predict right often you can earn a lot of it.

Yes, for me it was a bit about personal sports breakthrough, but it got a bit risky so i didnt increase it further. 3×0,10€ bets on Liverpool, Real Madrid, and Manchester City brought total of +0,11€. The New York Knicks game will happen in less than month and also has 0,10€ bet on Knicks. So far super nice ROI... people ask for gamedevelopment type of stability more than risking sportsman in forest alone, so would have gone a bit scary money-wise...

So far it's seems like it wasn't to risky bets. It worked well and off course in betting you could be wrong sometimes if the favorite doesn't win.

Looks good. I think most important is to not set too high goals.

For sure and not spend what you don't have,

Yes i made mistake last year of too rapid training with 10buyin brm. Or was it a mistake actually? I put in my maximum and has paid off. But my body almost couldnt handle that pace of competing.

Put another soccer bet on my own country league. I bet 0,10€ that capital city 2nd team would beat the island team tomorrow with 1.6 odds, could bring +0,06€ or -0,10€. I love FC Flora I hope they win.

This one didnt go too well, our favorite is 0:2 behind at minute 48.

How ended the match?

They lost 0:2 on that island with 1.6 odds to win. Very interesting. Looks like the locals are way more unpredictable than my guess. Good to know that.

Than you knowit for next time

Overall a nice experience the bet, i never really followed the local soccer league before. I think is way better to buy and have fun than criticize leagues in bad mood without betting. Then at least someone gets the money and you get to test your knowledge.

For sure, but even if your knowledge is good you not always right.

Yes the newcomer has the chance to surprise the legend. Got like bluffed in really sick small pots in DoN today opp betting river on TxxKA with T8, 1bb into two opps, i folded QT getting 1:8 odds. Well im not legend in DoN but still won but sometimes these new players make surprising moves.

FC Flora vs FC Kuressaare 0:2 i dont know what happened, looks like the level of Flora has dropped a lot and people on that remote home island trained themselves up. Not bad spent 0,10€ but i was surprised. I dont know that league though.

DON's are pretty tricky games to play. I have played them years ago, but not my favorite format with ICM that has huge impact how you need to play.

I never heard about both soccer teams. I wouldn't bet on matches if I don't know anything of both teams.

I also will not bet on these clubs ever again