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I noticed in the Betsafe sportsbetting we can also bet on politics of some countries. I noticed we can bet whether and when the King and Queen of Great Britain will create the next elections. This year, next year, and so on. Looks very difficult thought. What are your thoughts on this? How would you smartbet on politics?
many people are inclined to throw their support behind a rivaling party
Yes in many poverty-stricken states of EU rapid change is occurring as people vote for something they have never seen before.
You need to know well how popular the government is to have a reasonable change to predict elections well.
If you aren't familiar with the current political climate of a particlar country it's really hard to make a good decision.
Yes im mostly interested in Democrats vs Republicans option to bet on the result in USA, i currently have a bet on their basketball league, but i see both Rs and Ds have their good sides if they would come to power. I think Republicans will win for about next 10 years but i havent placed a bet.
Yes, in that sense, we can look at former elections and simply place bets on previous winners, if these parties still operate. People aren't that pro-change and these parties could have experience in that field (how to win etc).
I think that's a bad idea. Unless the incumbent party or candidate is very popular, previous elections don't predict very well at all how later elections will go. In fact, when things are going less than well, many people are inclined to throw their support behind a rivaling party, whether it's a protest vote or a long-term switch.
Just looking at
21637 And before that, comparing the 2025 election results (darker colored bars at the top) with the 2021 election (lighter colored bars at the bottom), you see similarly big shifts.
21638 SPD was the chancellor's party before 2025, CDU is the current one - you can clearly them losing a lot of support both times, so the previous election would have been a very poor predictor.
Looks crazy those graphs but i think variance has decreased since 1930s? All the best.
Looks like it isnt very popular this topic. Maybe placing bet on Republicans soon...
Okay. Hopefully next president will be a lot better and yougher.
The civil warriors... hmm... Was like invited to party of civil warriors and they were explained in that party, other than that, had my free drink and went back to my kids quickly.
That sounds nice.
Yup is nice the administration. So the concern about "running a school wrong" from parent has to do with about 2-kid groupsize; was telling this story to 19 kids today in other school who are super enthusiastic, wasnt like anything... Will have a big meeting though with agent in that smaller school, they kinda let that happen (more free workshops) by increasing group size from 10 to 14.
So tomorrow is the gamedev meeting with agent in the smaller school about structured future of gamedev in that school. As it is gov school more people try to change everything. If the left wing revolution didnt happen in 9 hours, they turn to changing contents of a kid's gamedev.
An interesting article appeared in Wired Magazine.
Unfortunately, I can't read the entire thing, because my Wired subscription lapsed, but if you've never had one, it might be possible to read it.
At least the winners got their prize money.