The Red Line Myth and Goodhart's Law
…for years, the notion of keeping non-showdown winnings strong was seen as a good indication that you are playing well
Whenever the discussion of "red lines" come up in discussion, I would link to this thread: https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/no-limit-advanced-discussions-1638/the-red-line-myth-by-w34z3l-216296/#post-1214424
Today, though, I came across an article about "Goodhart's Law" . In essence, if you change your behaviour to reach a certain target in a single metric, it ceases to become a good metric. As w34zel points out, if you play to maximize your red line, your blue line must therefore suffer.
What's the best strategy then: As always, one hand at a time. Play each hand according to the odds (and implied odds, if any). You also need to take into account the other players and their tendencies. Over the long term, this will result in net profit.
"Red line" refers to non-showdown winnings as shown on Pokertracker 4 and Hold'em manager graphs. "Blue line" refers to showdown winnings. Goodhart's Law Perverse Incentive